With important fixes, maybe trains can fly
Modesto Bee Editorial
We love the thought of taking a bullet train to Los Angeles, or riding one home from the Bay Area in less time than it takes to watch three innings of a ballgame. We like it even more with gas at $4.50 a gallon and with our roads filled with carbon-belching cars.
But we don’t love a lot of what we know of the still-fuzzy high-speed rail plan voters will be asked to approve in November.
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Most importantly, it adds sweeteners for those who don’t live anywhere near the plan’s first phase — growing the bond by $950 million, all of which is designated for local rail lines such as Metrolink in Los Angeles, BART and the Altamont Commuter Express that ultimately would feed into a high-speed line.
The High Speed Rail Commission promises trains every five minutes, going from Los Angeles to San Francisco in the same time it would take a passenger to get there by air. Since 1996, the California High Speed Rail Authority has spent $58 million making plans and doing environmental reviews. Two years ago, the commission picked its route, which starts in Los Angeles, comes up the valley, turns west near Merced then goes over Pacheco Pass and into the Bay Area. That meant people living north of Merced would get minimal benefit from the initial investment.
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Quit low-balling. The cost for this all-new railroad has been set at $33 billion, with $7 billion more needed to add service from Merced to Sacramento and from Anaheim to San Diego. These estimates haven’t changed in six years — and no one believes them. A 2005 World Bank policy study shows that major rail projects usually cost 44 percent more than budgeted.
Who will pay? Proponents say the federal government will be an important partner, but Wednesday the House of Representatives approved only $1.75 billion — $350 million a year over five years — for all the nation’s high-speed rail projects. The rest, say backers, will come from private investors. But large banks and hedge-fund investors are reeling from the mortgage crisis. That leaves taxpayers and riders.
Get real about ridership. Proponents say that by 2030, they expect to generate $1 billion in profit based on 100 million riders a year. That means every Californian would have to ride the train three times a year. When asked about the validity of such numbers, a person familiar with the details whispered, “crazy.” Another called them “black box” figures.
Be careful where you dig. The commission has hired Parsons Brinkerhoff to manage the program. Earlier this year, the company was forced to pay $458 million for problems with its “Big Dig” project in Massachusetts, whose final cost ($14.6 billion) doubled original estimates.
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more:
http://www.modbee.com/opinion/story/329324.html
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