Archive for bubble

Bubble Watch – We Are In A Bubble – Here’s The Evidence

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , on March 11, 2014 by highboldtage

short link here http://wp.me/pbr9G-3YD

mnemonic link  here http://urlet.com/will.literacy

Tesla Motors.   The big news last week was a multibillion dollar mega battery factory to be built “somewhere in the southwest” by Tesla motors, on still to be borrowed funds.  The big leap is that this factory will produce little batteries just like the ones we have now, but it will produce “billions” of them for battery packs for the 35,000 cars Tesla thinks it will sell the next few years.  The idea is floated that utilities will buy these batteries by the billions to store off peak power, or that individual consumer adoption will destroy the profitability of the grid and thus the big power producers.  Want to bet on these?  You can.

Bitcoin.   Well I did a post here a year or two ago about bitcoin, a cool digital currency.  I still think its a cool digital currency.  I even think bitcoin or something like it has a future, I would use bitcoin or some digital currency if it were convenient for everyday purchases.  I probably would not store my savings in bitcoin.   I would use bitcoin as a tool.  Back when I posted the article a bitcoin cost $7.00, while I guess just recently it was trading for over $700.00?  Really, a 100 times increase in value in a year?  Lets remember that bitcoin is cool but its also a fiat currency.  No reason for wild variations in price, its backed by trust in pixels.

and there’s this:

“One of the world’s most respected investors has raised the alarm over a looming asset price bubble, calling out “nosebleed valuations” in technology shares like Netflix and Tesla Motors  and warning of the potential for a brutal correction across financial markets.

Seth Klarman, the publicity shy head of the $27 billion Baupost Group whose investment opinions have attracted a near cult-like following, said that investors were underplaying risk and were not prepared for an end to central banks reversing a five-year experiment in ultra-loose money.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101479544

Margin debt is at or near all time highs http://www.cnbc.com/id/101479331

And from the Guardian UK

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/24/recovery-bubble-crash-uk-us-investors

“The situation is even more worrying in the US. In March 2013, the Standard & Poor 500 stock market index reached the highest ever level, surpassing the 2007 peak (which was higher than the peak during the dotcom boom), despite the fact that the country’s per capita income had not yet recovered to its 2007 level. Since then, the index has risen about 20%, although the US per capita income has not increased even by 2% during the same period. This is definitely the biggest stock market bubble in modern history.”

five signs the recovery may be an illusion http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/apr/06/global-economic-recovery-warning-signs-imf

MARKETWATCH ARE YOU READY FOR DEFLATION

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/could-we-be-heading-for-deflation-2014-03-11

market watch Europe’s hot new export deflation: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/europes-hot-new-export-is-deflation-2014-03-12

The Equations of Revolt – “Someday Loans”

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , on January 29, 2014 by highboldtage

shortlink here:  http://wp.me/pbr9G-3Ww

mnemonic here:  http://urlet.com/tinkering.york

The United States government has for the last few years lent $80 Billion dollars a month to the richest people in the world (the bankers) in the form of interest free or very low interest rate loans. This is done simply by forcing the government (us) to purchase worthless bonds, and paying for them with real tax money extracted from us. On the one hand this gives the banksters plenty of money to speculate with and of course one of the main speculations is whether or not it will ever be repaid. Such fun!

On the other hand it debases the dollar especially overseas and this has driven the so called “recovery” in the US. [We have been allowed to purchase real goods with counterfeit money and it has given the US a temporary advantage.]  This is coming to an end with the arrival of revolution in the third and second worlds now. [It turns out that once people have been trickled on anywhere in the world they get upset]   There are real fears of global currency wars. Domestically this will mean inflation or collapse.

So 85 Billion is an 85 followed by nine zeros, yes? So in a year you get 85 times 12 = 102 followed by 10 zeros. That’s right the banksters are getting an interest free Trillion dollar a year loan from you. You are very generous and they thank you back by creating high paying and rewarding employment for you.

85,000.000.000 times 12 = 1020000000000

It might even be argued that in a mild inflationary environment, that such interest free loans might in reality be actually positive interest loans. We are paying the banksters to borrow money from us! Loan sharks? Nay!  We are loan minnows!  We are loan kittens!  We are Loan Angels!

Its really even sweeter because there isn’t really any timeline for repayment. Its like everyone agrees that the banksters owe trillions but no one (in government) is really clawing it back. Nay! Our corporate tax collectors and government enforcers of corporate law have the softest of mittens while at the same time they tighten the screws on the rights of real people!

So imagine if that trillion dollars was simply sent in a check last year to you, apportioned simply by population.
That would be over $3,000 for every mother, every child, every dad, every homeless person, every baby, every immigrant, every mentally ill person, you know – each and every one and all of us. If you are a mom and dad and two kids, well your share would be $12,000. Of course you would have to pay it back someday. But we understand that times are tough and your family is too important to fail. And you get the $12 grand with no interest. Life is sweet.

So let me repeat. Your family gets a check for $12,000 this year in the form of an interest free loan that you must repay “someday”. And if you blow it all, no worries! You’re gonna get another 12 grand next year!  This is not welfare.  You and your family are too important to fail.  If you fail all of civilization will fail.

Imagine that world in contrast to the trickle down reality we face today!

So now you see a little glitch in the market and riots in the Ukraine and Thailand. These are food riots spurred by global inflation due to our [ the United States] government’s actions. Now the FED must taper this bubble or there will be global currency wars. There will be pain either way.

These are the equations of revolt.

The Governement Bubble – National, State, Local…

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , on December 21, 2012 by highboldtage

Here are a couple of reposts from HighBoldtage Mar. 2010:

The Government Bubble:

It turns out that the bubbles that we have recently experienced – housing, derivatives, banking, insurance, stockes and so on were not just economic bubbles.  It appears that there was also a bubble in government at the same time, and this bubble is now bursting.

California is the poster child for this, with recent furloughs and i.o.u.s for state payments, but this week Los Angeles is starting to lay off 4,000 employees.  Cities all over California are beginning to downsize, along with school districts and transportation systems.  It looks like before it is over a hundred thousand or more government workers in California will soon be unemployed and the ripple effects of that will be immense, particularly in Sacramento.  Also heavily impacted will be the small rural counties like Humboldt where government payrolls account for 30% or more of the local economy.

The Federal government has its own bubble to deal with, with out of control deficit spending it will be unable to bail out the states.  The states will be unable to bail out the cities and counties.  You are on your own.  The Bubble Government is bursting.

have a peaceful day,

Bill

The Government Bubble in Humboldt County

There is one trend that is unmistakable in Humboldt County government:  It has gotten more expensive very quickly, at least as quickly as those dastardly insurance rates.  In just four years, county expenditures have gone up 41%, more than 10% per year.  How does that stack up to your personal experience, Joe Six Pack?

To put this nicely, if the county government increase had been limited to roughly the official inflation rate (lets say around 3%) then the county expenditures exceed that now by some $60,000,000 per year, and rising.  It is possible that Humboldt County residents are getting $60,000,000 worth of services now from their county government  that they didn’t get in 2004.  If so please inform us.  It is also possible that we are paying a lot more for the same thing we were getting in 2004.

http://co.humboldt.ca.us/portal/budget/2009-10/A.pdf

Why the Greek rescue isn’t going to plan

By Mohamed El-Erian

Published: April 7 2010 15:53 | Last updated: April 7 2010 15:53

It should be apparent to all by now: despite the rhetoric out of some European capitals, the Greek rescue package is not going according to plan.

Buoyed by a cyclical recovery, markets around the world have yet to recognise the complexity of this situation. When they do, it will also become apparent that Greece is part of a wider, and historically unfamiliar phenomenon – that of a simultaneous and large disruption to the balance sheet of many industrial countries. Tighten your seat belts.

Mohamed El-Erian is chief executive and co-chief investment officer of Pimco

Copyright The Financial Times

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c2709314-4252-11df-9ac4-00144feabdc0.html

FaceBubble FacePlant

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , on May 22, 2012 by highboldtage

Let’s party like it’s 1999.

Oh and watch out for falling APPLs too.

The Government Bubble

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , on March 11, 2010 by highboldtage

Link here:

http://urlet.com/sudden.expect

http://highboldtage.wordpress.com/2010/03/11/the-government-bubble/

It turns out that the bubbles that we have recently experienced – housing, derivatives, banking, insurance, stockes and so on were not just economic bubbles.  It appears that there was also a bubble in government at the same time, and this bubble is now bursting.

California is the poster child for this, with recent furloughs and i.o.u.s for state payments, but this week Los Angeles is starting to lay off 4,000 employees.  Cities all over California are beginning to downsize, along with school districts and transportation systems.  It looks like before it is over a hundred thousand or more government workers in California will soon be unemployed and the ripple effects of that will be immense, particularly in Sacramento.  Also heavily impacted will be the small rural counties like Humboldt where government payrolls account for 30% or more of the local economy.

The Federal government has its own bubble to deal with, with out of control deficit spending it will be unable to bail out the states.  The states will be unable to bail out the cities and counties.  You are on your own.  The Bubble Government is bursting.

have a peaceful day,

Bill

Housing’s shadow inventory expands

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , on December 21, 2009 by highboldtage

But the ratio of loans 90 days or more past due has increased every month for the past 43 months!

At the end of October the ratio hit a record 7.4%.

http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2009/12/21/housings-shadow-inventory-expands/22993/

China: Overcapacity – Commodity Stockpiling

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on October 23, 2009 by highboldtage

http://urlet.com/schedule.anything

http://www.rgemonitor.com/emergingmarkets-monitor/257856/chinas_september_data_suggest_that_the_long-term_overcapacity_problem_is_only_intensifying

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 110 other followers